Oklahoma State
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
16  Cerake Geberkidane SO 31:14
88  Craig Nowak FR 31:46
95  Vegard Oelstad SR 31:49
127  Joshua Thompson SO 31:58
164  Chad Noelle SR 32:08
272  Brian Gohlke SR 32:28
682  Anthoney Armstrong SO 33:19
732  Christian Liddell FR 33:23
808  David Kilgore SR 33:30
860  Matthew Fayers SO 33:35
883  noah gade JR 33:37
964  Brigham Hedges SO 33:43
National Rank #10 of 308
Midwest Region Rank #1 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 92.9%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 10.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 46.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 85.1%


Regional Champion 69.8%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Cerake Geberkidane Craig Nowak Vegard Oelstad Joshua Thompson Chad Noelle Brian Gohlke Anthoney Armstrong Christian Liddell David Kilgore Matthew Fayers noah gade
Cowboy Jamboree 09/26 601 31:16 31:43 31:54 32:32 33:00 34:03 33:51 33:30
Alabama Crimson Classic Invitational 10/16 518 30:53 33:37 31:44 32:15 32:10 32:18 32:43 33:06 33:32 33:47
Big 12 Championships 10/31 400 31:16 31:54 31:05 32:05 31:58 32:50 32:51 33:57 33:30
Midwest Region Championships 11/13 390 31:15 31:49 31:43 31:47 32:16 31:50 34:17
NCAA Championship 11/21 546 32:04 31:26 35:39 31:51 31:59 32:28





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 92.9% 11.6 360 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.7 6.5 7.6 7.2 7.4 7.1 6.2 5.6 4.8 4.7 3.7 3.9 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.5 69 69.8 19.1 7.2 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cerake Geberkidane 99.0% 22.7 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.4 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.6 1.4
Craig Nowak 93.2% 80.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Vegard Oelstad 93.0% 85.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Joshua Thompson 92.9% 109.0 0.0 0.0
Chad Noelle 92.9% 131.8
Brian Gohlke 92.9% 177.0
Anthoney Armstrong 92.9% 237.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cerake Geberkidane 2.6 21.2 20.1 14.4 10.6 8.9 5.8 4.5 2.6 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Craig Nowak 10.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.6 7.8 8.0 8.3 7.0 7.1 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.1 4.0 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2
Vegard Oelstad 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 6.6 7.2 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.4 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.7 2.9 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3
Joshua Thompson 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.3 6.9 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.0 3.5 3.6 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.6
Chad Noelle 19.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.5 4.1 4.1 5.0 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.5
Brian Gohlke 31.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.7
Anthoney Armstrong 81.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 69.8% 100.0% 69.8 69.8 1
2 19.1% 100.0% 19.1 19.1 2
3 7.2% 48.6% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 3.5 3
4 2.9% 15.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.5 4
5 0.9% 0.9 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 92.9% 69.8 19.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 88.9 4.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Oklahoma 60.8% 1.0 0.6
Texas A&M 50.0% 1.0 0.5
Texas 38.3% 1.0 0.4
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.5
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0